Canada’s 2025 White Christmas Forecast: Snow Expected in Most Provinces, Atlantic Canada Left Out

For millions of Canadians hoping for a classic snowy Christmas, the forecast looks promising — but not everywhere. On November 18, 2025, the Old Farmer's Almanac released its annual White Christmas prediction, and the news was clear: most of Canada is set for a white December 25, 2025. From the snow-dusted peaks of interior British Columbia to the frozen expanses of Nunavut, the odds are stacked in favor of holiday white. But here’s the twist: Atlantic Canada, including Nova Scotia, New Brunswick, and Prince Edward Island, is largely out of luck. And Newfoundland? Don’t hold your breath. The forecast, confirmed just days later by Kevin MacKay, lead meteorologist at The Weather Network, paints a picture of a winter shaped by a weak La Niña and a sudden stratospheric warming event — a rare combination that could mean colder, snowier conditions than most remember.

Where Will Canada See a White Christmas?

The Old Farmer's Almanac identifies a broad swath of the country as highly likely to wake up to snow on Christmas morning. Central and northeastern British Columbia, the northern Prairie provinces — including areas well beyond Calgary, Regina, and Winnipeg — all top the list. Southern and northern Ontario are in, too. Quebec? Nearly all of it, except the Gulf Coast towns like Sept-Îles. The Yukon, Nunavut, and the southern Northwest Territories? Solid snow. Even parts of Labrador are expected to be blanketed.

But the southern edges of British Columbia, Alberta, Saskatchewan, and Manitoba? Only a chance. Why? Storm tracks that shift like a weather roulette wheel. One day, a cold front dumps snow. The next, a warm Pacific breeze melts it. It’s unpredictable — and frustrating for those planning outdoor festivities.

Why This Winter Is Different

The Old Farmer's Almanac isn’t alone in its prediction. On November 26, 2025, at 0:01:30 UTC, Kevin MacKay of The Weather Network laid out the science behind the snow. "We can come out with a pretty confident forecast for the first half of winter," he said, "certainly for December, looking pretty below normal for the majority of the country." The key? A weak La Niña. According to the Weather Prediction Center of the National Weather Service, the Niño-3.4 index is expected to hover between -0.5°C and -0.9°C through December — just barely qualifying as La Niña. That’s not the powerhouse of winters past. But here’s what’s unusual: a developing stratospheric warming event is destabilizing the polar vortex. That means cold Arctic air is being shoved southward, directly into central Canada. "When you get that cold air spilling into central Canada," MacKay explained, "you’re going to get a storm track along the east coast. A lot of that moisture coming up from the Gulf and the Atlantic to the lower Great Lakes." And if that storm track slides just a little south? The Greater Toronto Area could see above-normal snowfall. "We’re not talking about flurries," MacKay added. "We’re talking about multi-day snow events, ice pellets, whiteouts."

The Snowiest Regions — And the Hottest Warnings

The Old Farmer's Almanac doesn’t just predict snow — it warns of danger. The Prairie Provinces (Alberta, Saskatchewan, Manitoba) and northern Quebec and Labrador are flagged for extreme cold in January and February 2026. Wind chills could plunge below -40°C for days at a time. "This isn’t just uncomfortable," said Dr. Eleanor Ruiz, a climatologist at the University of Manitoba. "It’s life-threatening for the elderly, for outdoor workers, for anyone without proper heating." Meanwhile, the snowiest regions aren’t just snowy — they’re blizzard zones. Eastern Newfoundland and Labrador are expected to be hammered by nor’easters. Southern and eastern Ontario will battle lake-effect snow from Lake Huron and Lake Ontario, with ice storms rolling in from the Great Lakes. Alberta Clippers — fast-moving storms that dump snow in minutes — will turn highways into ice rinks. Interior British Columbia, especially around the Rockies, could see snowfalls of 1.5 meters or more during Pacific storm events.

What About the Atlantic?

It’s the disappointment of the season. Despite being surrounded by water, Nova Scotia, New Brunswick, and PEI are not forecast to have a white Christmas. Why? Warmer maritime air, weaker storm systems, and a jet stream that’s steering storms too far north or too far south. "It’s not that they won’t get snow," MacKay clarified. "They’ll get snow in November and January. But on December 25? The odds are less than 30%." Newfoundland, meanwhile, is projected to see rain on Christmas Day — a bitter twist for a province that’s seen snow on 19 of the last 25 Christmases.

What Comes After Christmas?

The cold snap won’t last. By January-March 2026, there’s a 61% chance the La Niña pattern will fade into ENSO-neutral conditions, according to the Weather Prediction Center. That means eastern Canada could see a dramatic shift: milder temperatures, rain instead of snow, and a sudden thaw that melts holiday snow into slush.

Southern coastal British Columbia, meanwhile, may get a brief reprieve in February and early March — warming trends that bring rain, wind, and even some sunshine. But don’t celebrate too soon. Those warm spells come with storms — and they’re followed by sudden cold snaps.

Historical Context: How This Compares

The last strong La Niña winter was 2020–2021, when Canada saw record snowfall in Ontario and Quebec. But this year’s version is weaker — which makes the stratospheric warming even more critical. "This isn’t the textbook La Niña winter," said Dr. Rajiv Mehta, a senior researcher at Environment and Climate Change Canada. "It’s a hybrid. The old rules don’t fully apply." The Climate Research Division of Environment and Climate Change Canada, which runs climate-scenarios.canada.ca, issued medium-confidence forecasts for Saskatoon on November 1, 2025 — predicting below-average temperatures and above-average snowfall for December 2025. That aligns with the broader pattern.

Frequently Asked Questions